[OC] With almost every vote counted, 90% of counties shifted toward the Republican Party.

You can really see how important the border issue was by looking at the counties on the southern border and seeing how far they shifted right regardless of which state they were in.

These comparisons I think really struggle to paint the reality here. It is not that Americans became more favorable to Trump, it is that that they became less favorable to Democrats. Many millions of people just didn’t vote, and the vast majority of those people were (at one point) Democrat voters.

Did they shift toward the Republican Party, or did the democratic voters shift to being nonvoters?

Oh, I absolutely can. It’s because the Democrats (my party all my life) trumpet the message “Not the party for you” to the majority of Americans. The Democratic party is hostage to the lunatic fringe, which demonizes men, white people, straight people, conservatives, the religious, etc. But people fitting all or most of those criteria are the overwhelming majority of Americans! The country is 66% white, almost half male, predominately Christian (at least by claim,) and decidedly conservative on social issues. The vast majority of Americans aren’t anti-trans, for instance. They aren’t pro-trans either, whatever that might be. They never even think about it. What they are passionately against is being told that they must restructure their entire understanding of sex and gender, abandon the ancient idea that there is a difference between men and women, boys and girls, and adopt the idea that it’s all just an evil fiction imposed on them by some mysterious patriarchy. It’s balls, and even most Democrats don’t believe it, but the Democrats keep deferring to that group. Why didn’t so much of America vote for Kamala? It’s not because she’s a woman. Americans have no problem electing women governors and legislators. It’s because Kamala’s campaign looked like it was entirely for the urban smarty class, and it looked like she got the nod because a bunch of elitists decided it was a woman’s turn. They simply never shut up about her being “a woman of color.” Honestly, most Americans wouldn’t have given either her race or her gender much thought if the media didn’t harp on it incessantly. I barely thought about it when she first became a public figure. But harping on it constantly makes her race and gender the most important thing and says, “She’s not your candidate, white people, and men especially.” Every time I saw one of her well produced events I slapped my head with the palm of my hand yelling OMG stop! Make it look like there are working class and middle class white folks involved, too! Make it look like it’s their party, too. I’m a liberal from way back, and when I looked at it, even I saw, “white working class and LMC not welcome” all over it. We’re even losing Black and Hispanic voters because we insist that blackness and speaking Spanish are their defining traits! It’s so racist. A Cuban American and a Mexican American have basically nothing in common other than speaking dialects of the same language. But the Democrats treat them all like they just swam across the Rio Grand and should be grateful that we don’t deport them. To the extent that you can say anything meaningful about such diverse groups, both groups think of themselves as Americans, and tend to be quite conservative, traditional, and patriotic, as is typical of Americans. Yet the Democrats appear to expect them to to respond to an appeal to underdog status, as if it’s 1930’s Texas. The one reliable Black vote is also disintegrating because the party treats Black voters like race is their only issue. I don’t believe it is. The real message when the dems focus relentlessly on race and gender is to tell people that WE think you’re second class.

all the border counties shifted, geee i wonder why

The DNC hasn’t held a legit primary in over a decade.

2016 – Bernie was winning but the DNC changed the rules to let Hillary win
2020 – Bernie was winning and the rest of the candidates fell in line and endorsed Biden ultimately letting Biden win
2024 – Kamala didn’t receive one primary vote in either 2020 or 2024 and was elected to be the candidate

It’s pretty clear the DNC thinks they know what’s best for everyone and to fall in line

“There are three types of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.” — Clemens.

This map is a good example of the latter.

There was no great “red shift”. More or less the same amount of voters came out for Trump as they did in 2020 (slightly more). What happened was the 10 million *less* voters that came out than in 2020 who voted for Biden then. Great psychological tactic of the right to not change voters minds–but to just wear the opposition down to the point of apathy and non-participation in the electoral process.

Tools: Excel, ArcGIS Pro
Sources:
– https://github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24
– https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president
– https://www.elections.alaska.gov/
– https://www.nhgis.org/

This post is inspired by u/EverestMaher’s post from yesterday ([link here](https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/1h19tr8/with_almost_every_vote_counted_every_state/)). Almost 90% of counties shifted toward the Republican Party.

Democratic Shifts (331 counties)
– The county that shifted Democratic by the smallest amount was Crowley County, CO which shifted -0.3% D and -0.4% R.
– The county that shifted Democratic by the largest amount was House District 3, AK which shifted 32.5% D and -32.0% R.

Republican Shifts (2,821 counties)
– The county that shifted Republican by the smallest amount was Adams County, WI which shifted -1.9% R and -2.0% D.
– The county that shifted Republican by the largest amount was House District 33, AK which shifted 46.0% R and -46.0% D.

Not surprising, the incumbent had an uphill battle when the electorate suffered real wage loss through inflation. That and Harris didn’t do herself any favors by saying, “oh look I’m a Republican too, I want the border wall and look at my neocon warhawk friend Liz Cheney! See I’m just like Nicki fucking Haley!”

Terrible campaign, terrible candidate, the DNC lost because they sucked!

Maybe running on abortion and Trump bad like Hitler doesn’t win people over, especially with what happened the last 4 years.

How? Were they not there for Trumps last term?

Land doesn’t vote.

A visualization of the change in electoral districts would be more useful.

even then “Did Not Vote” is still the single largest voting block.

Keep in mind that Kamala outperformed Hillary in 2016. That really speaks to how strong Trump performed this time around.

Yeah I’d be mad if I was a drone human that wants more government and suppression

I still don’t fully grasp the reasoning many people voted Republican, but if I think about it very simplistically this old quote by Jim Carville comes to mind- “The economy, stupid”.

i keep seeing analyses saying this, but wonder if it takes into account the decline in blue turnout.

considering the significant decline in overall turnout, especially when eligible voter numbers increase between elections, my takeaway was that dems didn’t show up which folks seem to be interpreting as a “red shift.” when in reality it’s just a blue stall.

edit: struggling to find national numbers, but Texas saw a decline.

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/11/06/texas-voter-turnout-election-2024-registration/

and NY state:

https://nysfocus.com/2024/11/09/low-voter-turnout-trump-harris