Day by day probability is increasing

That motherfucker went from 1.8% to 3.1% since the last time I saw it this morning.

What’s the DraftKings money line on this

The probability increasing as the data gets more accurate is expected. This happened with other asteroids as well.

Let me try and explain the most likely scenario of the Asteroid not colliding with Earth
– Imagine a fuzzy box representing the uncertainty of where the asteroid will pass through in 2032.
– Earth is obviously placed somewhere within this box.
– Initially the fuzzy box (uncertainty) is very large and Earth only takes up 1% of the box.
– So we say the chance of collision is 1%
– As we get more data, this fuzzy box (uncertainty) will slowly shrink
– Since Earth is still in this shrinking box the proportion of Earth’s area within this box will increase
– At this point Earth might take up 3.1% of this smaller fuzzy box and we say that there will be a 3.1% chance of collision
– What will most likely happen is that this fuzzy box will shrink to a point not centered on the earth and eventually Earth will leave this shrinking fuzzy box
– At this point you will see the percentage chance of collision rapidly decrease towards zero as Earth suddenly leaves this fuzzy box of uncertainty.

TLDR: In the scenario that the asteroid won’t collide with Earth, the probability of collision will still slowly increase as we get more accurate orbit data from the asteroid. Until the probability will suddenly decrease to zero.

I’m only here to read the sarcastic comets..

That 3.1% chance is probably gonna shrink as we get more data over the next few years. When an asteroid is first discovered, its orbit has a lot of uncertainty, so the initial impact probability is kinda broad. Over time, as telescopes track it better, the margin of error shrinks, and in most cases, the risk drops to nearly zero. Small errors in early calculations can make it seem like there’s a larger chance of impact, but once we refine the asteroid’s actual path, it almost always turns out to be a miss.

That’s only half the story.

It’s also predicted that it would hit near the equator… And the odds of it hitting a major population center are something like 0.001% IIRC. If it hits water, it’s not big enough to cause huge tsunamis that can’t be prepared for and evacuated with minimal loss of life.

I think it should be the target for testing another system to change it’s trajectory. We know it’s possible from DART… Now we should actually do it and make it a flat 0% chance to hit.

Can we train some deep sea drillers to be astronauts?

50/50. Either happens or it doesn’t.

So the “Giant Meteor 2032” political signs actually will have a chance now?

It’s un-American to look up!

Yeah, I’ve seen all the asteroid movies. I know how this is gonna end.

It’s almost like these space rocks are destined to hit earth at some point and like…maybe we should be more prepared. I mean, we’ve had like millions of years since the last plant killer hit and I feel like we have done shit about fuck.

Is there anyone even still working at NASA?