The unemployment rate for new grads is higher than the average for all workers — that never used to be true [OC]
Thursday, 13 Mar 2025
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![The unemployment rate for new grads is higher than the average for all workers — that never used to be true [OC]](https://meta.cdns.win/en/2024/12/The-unemployment-rate-for-new-grads-is-higher-than-the-860x861.webp)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/184260/educational-attainment-in-the-us/
That’s a really big change in college attainment.
For 25 YO and above, the number is 19.4% in 1990, and 37.7% in 2022
I haven’t thought about how this matters to the whole thing
An interesting point is that for each successive business cycle since 1990, the recent grads’ unemployment rate in good times hit higher lows, and in the bad times it hit higher highs in unemployment. That is, the bad times were worse, and the good times were not quite as good through each of the last three cycles. This trend doesn’t appear as pronounced or at all in the other two groups.
This is the stat that is so frustrating for my friends who are in their early to mid 20s. You see how low unemployment is and then you see your friends with high GPAs and relevant degrees getting little to no interviews as they go back to the career center for the 20th time. They review their already good resume because no one with career experience has seen this before so they just parrot that it must be your resume, it must be your interviewing. There is no advice for unprecedented rejection and it’s really depressing to watch them get advice they have tried to implement months ago because people with experience don’t see it even if they look for a job.
The economy is tight so no one wants to post entry-level positions. Some employers will say it’s the assumed risk and training cost of someone just entering the field.
Cool, I feel slightly better about myself now.
“Entry level job with 10+ years experience required”
This graph doesn’t take underemployment into consideration which is extremely important when considering new grads. Today it seems like graduate unemployment is still fairly low, however we have to consider that underemployment is sky high
Union Steamfitter with a college degree here. The Steamfitters, Plumbers and Electricians union apprenticeship programs in my area have had the largest amount of applications ever this past year AND the largest amount of applicants with college degrees ever AND the largest amount of women applicants ever.
I’m doing better almost all my college friends. The few doing better went into finance.
This is purely anecdotal… But where I work we had a ton of retirements in the past 8 years or so. Mostly boomers. There was a huge scramble to fill those positions. Now we are significantly younger and the amount of people leaving via retirement is wayyyyy down. Feels like we are in this odd “in between” time of being near fully staffed. Not sure if data supports my anecdotal experience.
Found this to be a really fascinating trend – the unemployment rate for new grads is higher than the rate for all workers and all college grads more generally.
Source: NY FED
Tool: Excel
I graduated in 2020 with a STEM degree. It sucked. I coped by applying for jobs for 2 years then going for a masters.
I thought it was tough when I graduated in 2008 with my degree.
My son graduated high school and college with a 4.0. He studied computer programming and software design, with a minor in cybersecurity. His primary professor said he was one of the most gifted students he had worked with, and an engineer he did some contract work for said he was the most brilliant person he had met in his career.
Can’t get a consistent, full-time, noncontracted job. So many out of work programmers and tech specialists with a decade of experience or more. Recruiters have turned him down, saying, “We can’t place the folks with experience, so we’re not looking at recent college grads.” Even the contract work has dried up despite him receiving plaudits for it.
I don’t know what to tell him. I feel so bad that this bright young man, who always gives 100%, can’t break in anywhere. And I don’t know how to help him.
I feel like something is fundamentally broken in our economy and there is no fix on the horizon.
I’m actually more amazed that the unemployment rate for new grads used to be lower than the overall unemployment rate.
Given how hard it was for me and my colleagues to find jobs out of college, I would not have expected that…
The article directly above this one is about how millions of boomers are coming out of retirement because they either forgot to save any money or covid wiped it all out.
Boomers are taking millions of entry level jobs to delay their retirement until they can max social security.
Looks like covid caused an inversion. Seems likely that with jobs going remote, the entry jobs also went offshore
Interesting trends – college degree was a measurable advantage for employment in your early 20s for decades, but that advantage was shrinking heading in to COVID. Now it is less of one, approaching no advantage if the trend continues.
Have we hit peak entry level employment demand? I’m sure the AI aficionados would say so.
I don’t believe this survey distinguishes underemployment from unemployment. I believe if you report that you have a full time job of any kind, you are considered employed, and if you are seeking a job but don’t have one, you are considered unemployed.
A lot of issues with lack of soft skills among younger people based on what I’ve been told by friends who hire a lot fior more entry level jobs.
I worked in an HR tech company for years. The pendulum swings most wildly for entry level positions. In hot markets entry level and intern positions become massive opportunities for companies as experienced wages soar while in cold markets almost 100% of the open roles will be geared towards experienced personnel.
I remember a few years where we would only get 50% of entry level offers signed because each applicant had 3-4 competing offers.
Now in this low hire low fire market. Everything is pretty stagnant and new grads get the short end of the stick. I think this is the wrong way to approach hiring, but I’m not a boss so I don’t get a say.
Covid spike aside, it was worse for new grads in the Great Recession 2009-2012. That was a terrible time to be job hunting.
That inversion is very interesting, though!
Perhaps we are churning out too many college grads? Or not enough boomers retiring?
Plenty of better paying jobs available to those who are ok doing labor.
COVID-19 era college students are known as **”The Bad Batch”**
>“Employers need to recognize that, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, young people graduating from college had more than two years of disruption in their education as well as their social and professional development,”
Employers hate hiring gen Z graduates. Employers offer older workers better pay, increased benefits to avoid Gen Z college graduates. Even when hired they are fired more often. Go millennials :/
https://www.intelligent.com/nearly-4-in-10-employers-avoid-hiring-recent-college-grads-in-favor-of-older-workers/
https://www.resumebuilder.com/3-in-4-managers-find-it-difficult-to-work-with-genz/
I suspect ChatGPT era college students will also have bad prospects.
Have you interviewed a recent grad recently? These poor kids are spending a fortune on an education that doesn’t teach them a god damned thing.
I graduate in 2009… isnt that spike covid looks like its better now than it was then? Me and my friends always joke how our specific birth year was the most screwed, 9/11 our first year of HS economic crash as we graduated college and so on and so forth. But damn do we have character!